Each year I write about the 25-man squad and the implications of the home grown players rule and how it will impact on Spurs’ transfer strategy. The home grown player numbers could impact on how many signings Fabio Paratici can make, the nature of those signings and/or the size of our squad for the rest of the season.

The Premier League ‘Home Grown Players (HGP)’ Rule

The misconception about the requirement itself is that clubs must name eight home grown players in their squads. We could name fewer than eight HGPs, but would need to also name fewer than 25 players in our squad — for example, if we only have seven HGPs, we can name a 24-man squad, 6/23, 5/22, etc. 

Remember, an HGP is defined as one whom, irrespective of nationality or age, has been registered with any club affiliated to The Football Association or the Football Association of Wales for a period, continuous or not, of three entire seasons, or 36 months, before his 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which he turns 21). Source: Premier League.

As ever, we will not need to name players who are under 21 on our squad list, so could augment our squad with youngsters. This would mean that we could manage with, say, a 22-man squad with just five HGPs, but would need plenty of under 21 players who are ready to play. For the 2021/22 campaign, players considered ‘under 21’ will have been born on or after 1st January 2000. This means that for the current season we still have a number of ‘freebies’ who are fairly well-known names, the likes of: TJ Eyoma, Ryan Sessegnon, Oliver Skipp, Jubril Okedina, Jack Clarke, Harvey White, Troy Parrott, Dennis Cirkin, Nile John, Dane Scarlett and Alfie Devine. Some of these players will ultimately be sent out on loan, of course.

From this season, Brandon Austin, Japhet Tanganga and Tobi Omole would need to be named on our squad list should we wish to use them as they were all born before 1st January 2000. The fact that they are considered home grown is useful, though I would suspect that only Tanganga will be named in the initial squad list.

The Europa League ‘Home Grown Players (HGP)’ Rule

The Europa Conference League rules are a little different to the Premier League rules — have a look at article 45 (‘Player Lists’) of the regulations. UEFA don’t just want clubs to have players trained elsewhere in the FA structure; they have additional requirements for club-trained players. They want to encourage clubs to bring through their own young players.

If we want to name a ‘full’ (25-man) squad in the Europa League, we would need at least four ‘association-trained’ players (we have lots) and four ‘club-trained’ players (we currently have: Harry Kane, Harry Winks, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Alfie Whiteman, Brandon Austin, Japhet Tanganga). Austin is on-loan at Orlando City until December.

Players under 21 can be included on List B so long as they have been ‘eligible to play for the club concerned for any uninterrupted period of two years since his 15th birthday by the time he is registered with UEFA, or a total of three consecutive years with a maximum of one loan period to a club from the same association for a period not longer than one year.’ This excludes Sessegnon and Clarke due to their loans, and Devine is also not eligible for List B as he only joined us last year. All three would need to be included on List A should we wish to use them.

Summary

We currently have 26 players who would need to be named on the Premier League squad list if we wanted to play them. Many of these players are expected to leave and so it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions about whether HGP will be an issue for us at this point; but probably not.

As ever, it’s a slightly more delicate situation in the UEFA competition due to the relatively low number of club-trained players. Depending on how the summer transfer activity goes, we may end up having to select a slightly smaller squad than the maximum allowed. This is unlikely to cause an issue, though, as it is expected that a lot of young players (who will be on List B) will be used in the Conference League in order to give them experience.

#	Player	DOB	Age	Status	PL HGP	EL Locally Trained
1	Hugo Lloris	26/12/1986	34
2	Joe Hart	19/04/1987	34		Y	Association
3	Toby Alderweireld	02/03/1989	32
4	Moussa Sissoko	16/08/1989	31
5	Matt Doherty	16/02/1992	29		Y	Association
6	Erik Lamela	04/03/1992	29
7	Son Heung-min	08/07/1992	29
8	Lucas Moura	13/08/1992	28
9	Serge Aurier	24/12/1992	28
10	Ben Davies	24/04/1993	28		Y
11	Harry Kane	28/07/1993	27		Y	Club
12	Eric Dier	15/01/1994	27
13	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	05/08/1995	25
14	Harry Winks	02/02/1996	25		Y	Club
15	Giovani Lo Celso	09/04/1996	25
16	Dele	11/04/1996	25		Y	Association
17	Davinson Sánchez	12/06/1996	25
18	Sergio Reguilón	16/12/1996	24
19	Tanguy Ndombele	28/12/1996	24
20	Steven Bergwijn	08/10/1997	23
21	Joe Rodon	22/10/1997	23		Y
22	Cameron Carter-Vickers	31/12/1997	23		Y	Club
23	Alfie Whiteman	02/10/1998	22		Y	Club
24	Brandon Austin	08/01/1999	22	On-loan	Y	Club
25	Japhet Tanganga	02/05/1999	22		Y	Club
26	Tobi Omole	17/12/1999	21		Y	Association
27	Ryan Sessegnon	18/05/2000	21		Y	Association
28	Jack Clarke	23/11/2000	20		Y	Association
29	Alfie Devine	01/08/2004	16		Y	Association

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Welcome, Nuno! Sorry, that should probably be #WelcomeNuno.

does the fact that his name translates to Nuno Holy Spirit help at all? you been asking for divine intervention for a while, x

— Tiago Estêvão (@TiagoEstv) June 30, 2021

Nuno Espírito Santo is our new Head Coach (note, not Manager). Spurs have managed to make me feel relieved and somewhat excited about an appointment which, until a few days ago, would have felt pretty bland, uninspiring and out of kilter with the expectations which Daniel Levy so publicly set (“free-flowing, attacking and entertaining” football / promoting young players).

I’m not going to write about how we got here because Jack Pitt-Brooke has written about that really well in all of its horrifying detail, and you should all read that. I’m not linking to The Athletic because I have a (legitimate) personal beef with them and I am a stubborn man, but go find it posted elsewhere and read it and shake your head and maybe your fist and reflect on just how easy it would have been to appoint Graham Potter and cry. But then shrug it off and look to our new future under NES! Because it’s not half as bleak as I’ve made it sound so far.

First and foremost, Nuno is not a bastard. As well as not being a bastard, he seems actively decent and pleasant and likeable and charismatic. So that’s a welcome change!

He is also our first (permanent) black Head Coach. This is significant. It shouldn’t be, but it absolutely is, and people trying to minimise this are being deliberately contrary for literally no reason and I would question their motives for doing so. Anyway, it makes me feel quite warm inside.

I also really liked this initial soundbyte:

“Our philosophy is not only about me, it’s about staff, the coaching staff – it’s simple, we improve players, we try to make them better, to improve them every day and by that, it’s no matter which age the player is – young, old, experienced, no experience at all – it doesn’t matter.”

Nuno Espírito Santo, tottenhamhotspur.com, 30 June 2021

I’ve a lot going on at the moment so I’m not going to be able to repeat the depth of research that I managed for The Fonseca Files. Fortunately, Nathan A Clark is putting together a detailed analytical video on NES for The Extra Inch Patreon. He will do this in video form far better than I could have managed in written form anyway. 

I have watched a fair bit of Nuno’s Wolves, though and I have some #takes.

So, to start, we did a podcast with Tiago Estêvão on Wolves back in November 2018. Tiago speaks (from 29:00 on) about NES’s journey and tactical style, focusing on how he re-invented himself tactically with Wolves in the Championship. He also speaks about the connection to Jorge Mendes, and I think the analysis stands up now, two and a half years later. So definitely go and listen to that.

[PODCAST] S3E07 – "The Battle Of The Full-Backs"

Link: https://t.co/tY9jAH3SyE
@WindyCOYS and @NathanAClark are joined by @TiagoEstv to talk about Spurs' matches against Wolves and PSV, and to answer listener questions.#COYS #THFC pic.twitter.com/ZmXAmFUbjh

— The Extra Inch (@TheExtraInch) November 9, 2018

And then if I talk chronologically, I think the starting point is the 2018/19 Wolves team and the 2019/20 Wolves team, their first and second seasons in the Premier League. These seasons were undeniably impressive. Undeniably impressive. We know they had a team too good for the Championship and that promotion was an almost an inevitability, but what they achieved in those two seasons was pretty remarkable.

Across the 2018/19 season, Understat has them 6th on xPTS (expected points) and 4th on xGA (expected goals conceded). As I say, undeniably impressive.

It gets even better in 2019/20. 5th on xPTS (14 xPTS better off than Spurs) and 2nd defensively. Resolute.

I tweeted this in August 2019:

I think Wolves are my favourite 'other' PL team to watch; so much variety to their play! Inventive long and short-range passing, great use of wing-backs, a fabulous one-touch player in Jiminez and a few dollops of occasional x-factor throughout the rest of the team.

— Chris Miller (@WindyCOYS) August 19, 2019

I remember loving that Wolves side because they were unusual. I saw them keep the ball really well at the back with what is known as ‘deep circulation’ — lots and lots of passes between their three centre-backs and the deep-lying midfielders (Rúben Neves and João Moutinho). Then, when they’d dragged their opponent towards them sufficiently, or across to one side sufficiently, Connor Coady or Neves or Moutinho — but most-memorably for me, Coady — would ping a cross-field out to Jonny on the left or Matt Doherty (ooh) on the right and suddenly Wolves would be away and Raúl Jiménez or Diogo Jota or Adama Traoré or Ivan Cavaleiro or Hélder Costa or Daniel Podence would come to life and drift to the wings and create overloads and there would be technically impressive interplay and the opposite wing-back would arrive late in the box and Matt Doherty scored four league goals for four seasons in a row (!!!) and that is Undeniably. Impressive. Breathe.

But they were doing this as underdogs and, I think, this is why I found it so impressive. As well as their deep circulation and excellent switches of play when they had the ball, they were often ceding possession and playing on the counter. Jiménez received a lot of long balls and made them stick, holding up play and waiting for the rest of the team to join him, such had been their defensive low block. This felt like a logical and appropriate strategy for Wolves, but not one that I would necessarily want to see employed at my team, which had (and still has) better talent at its disposal.

So we come to this season’s Wolves.

It’s just undeniable that things went quite sour. 13th in the actual Premier League table and 13th on XPTS. 10th in terms of xGA. Sixteenth in terms of xG.

As I say in the tweet below, I’d not seen much of them up until December. I knew they’d played badly but I also saw from these readings that they had played well against Chelsea.

I've not seen much of Wolves this season so I've just been reading up on recent performances, including their 2-1 win over Chelsea: https://t.co/ebNIVVfP9jhttps://t.co/0H263EbwfZ pic.twitter.com/sMfszENwBf

— Chris Miller (@WindyCOYS) December 27, 2020

A previously beloved manager seeing his key striker suffer a bad injury and his key midfield lynchpin falling off a cliff and, in trying to find solutions, tearing up his original tactical plan and flailing around hoping for the best? Yeah, that sounds eerily familiar. So yes, there are lots of mitigating factors to take into account.

Fancied us today against a passive Wolves team – players able to have more time on the ball, more touches & can slowly break them down. You can see what time on the ball does for Hojbjerg – he's looked great & got the assist. Dele's backwards pressure was excellent all half.

— Chris Miller (@WindyCOYS) May 16, 2021

But what became clear to me last season was that Wolves were so passive. Where previously they were effective at pressing, particularly out wide with the aggressive positioning of their full-backs, this was no longer a real facet of their play. But I think this has much to do with the issues I just mentioned. Or, hey, maybe losing Matt Doherty was actually more important than we all suspected.

I’m finding it really difficult to draw conclusions about what NES will do at Spurs. This is because he played 4-2-3-1 at Valencia and even a 4-4-2 at times, adapting to the players he had available. Obviously this was not the case at Wolves until this season.

What I can say decisively is that he will use attacking full-backs, if not wing-backs. That might mean that Doherty becomes key or it might mean that we need to urgently sign a right-back. Or both, we need two right-backs across a long season with many games, right? I would sign an attacking right-back as top priority.

The way NES has used Neves and Moutinho as very deep central midfielders screams Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and Oliver Skipp to me, but 1. maybe Harry Winks gets a stay of execution and 2. what does this mean for Tanguy Ndombele and Giovani Lo Celso? He’s said to be adaptable, so hopefully he seems value in building the team around our two best midfielders.

As for the attacking midfielders, who knows? In the Wolves 2018/19 3-4-3, Dele is best suited to the left-sided of the three due to his pressing qualities and ability to play quick one and two-touch football. But Son Heung-min is Son Heung-min and you need to find a way to accommodate him.

Basically: there’s lots to work out, it’s very difficult to draw conclusions at this time, and I think we need to wait until we see some signs of a tactical plan emerging in pre-season to really know which players are going to work out and which are not.

Daniel Levy’s quote, upon making the announcement, is intriguing:

“I’ve spoken already about the need to revert back to our core DNA of playing attacking, entertaining football and Fabio and I believe Nuno is the man who can take our talented group of players, embrace our young players coming through and build something special.”

Daniel Levy, tottenhamhotspur.com, 30 June 2021

It implies that NES will play a style that he’s not *really* played since his time at Valencia. I guess we’ll see.

What’s interesting is that the young players — who Levy says will be “embraced” — will have a real opportunity to impress over the first few weeks of pre-season, with many players still off representing their countries. This is particularly true of our young centre-backs, with Eric Dier our only recognised first team centre-back present for the start of pre-season. I mentioned TJ Eyoma in The Fonseca Files, but I think Jubril Okedina is also worth a mention here too.

I’ve not mentioned Jorge Mendes too much here and I’d rather not do a deep dive on that for now but I will say that Fabio Paratici being in post could be seen as protection against Mendes getting his claws too deep into the club. Or we can simply recognise that Mendes did some valuable and impressive work in attracting elite players to Wolves and hope (like, really, really hope) for the best.

So good luck, Nuno. I’m happy to have you, I’m interested to see what you can do, and I’ll be getting behind you with fulsome vigour. Come on you Spurs!

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I am the host of The Extra Inch; a Spurs podcast that delves into the analytical side of Tottenham games. Check us out! If you already follow the podcast, consider becoming an xSub for additional content, including videos, and extra podcasts.

I recently added a Donate button to this site. It’s on the ‘About‘ page. I explain why on there. Cheers!

Firstly, go back and check out Part 1 if you haven’t already. It was my most read blog article in a couple of years, and I appreciate everyone who shared it, as well as the kind words on Reddit. I hope that you enjoy/enjoyed that and that you watched the documentary. The documentarians got tremendous access and it’s very insightful.

When a new coach is appointed I find that the really fun part is to speculate as to which players already at the club would fit the coach’s system, which youth players might get a look-in, and which areas he would need to prioritise in terms of adding new players. It’s nice to look forward, to translate the squad over a coach’s assumed system and to consider how that might go.

Of course, modern coaches tend to be more flexible now and will have more than one way to play, and that is certainly the case with Paulo Fonseca, as it was with Mauricio Pochettino. With Pochettino, whether he played three at the back or four at the back, though, there were over-arching principles that remained, even if the players fulfilling them changed. I.e., even with a back four, it became a three in build-up as one of the pivot players split the centre-backs, five attacking players would generally be spread evenly across the five vertical channels of the pitch and pressing would occur. The same is the case with Fonseca — his principles remain, build from the back, have wide players keeping width extremely high, overload the midfield.

Caveat: it’s only a few days since Fonseca was linked, and I’ve not yet watched as much of his Roma or Shakhtar Donetsk teams as I’d have liked. I’ve focussed so far on highlights and clips from players, as well as the full-match vs AC Milan from October 2020 which I found on footballia.net.

Whilst we know from the documentary I referenced in Part 1 that Fonseca’s intention is to stick to his system and have the players adapt to it, I’ve made a lot of assumptions in this article and, to be honest, it’s pretty speculative stuff. As I say, I’m mainly doing this for fun rather than to make bold predictions.

Goalkeeper

I’ve read and listened to lots that says that Fonseca’s keeper supports playing out from the back, and becomes part of the build-up. However, I’ve watched some clips of Pau López’s distribution for Roma from this past season and it’s not as fancy or radical as I’d expected. He does, however, go short whenever possible and often from deep inside his own box. This is really not a strength for Hugo Lloris. Assuming he’s not going anywhere, I anticipate a few nervy moments where he hangs on to the ball a little late, or gets his pass wrong. We saw plenty of those under Mauricio Pochettino and it’s, I guess, the price we pay with Lloris — his shot-stopping qualities are still there, so will hopefully compensate, but it’s not a great fit. If a goalkeeper that can pass the ball accurately and calmly under pressure is a deal-breaker, we should look at Brentford’s David Raya.

Centre-backs

Fonseca’s centre-backs have to be exceptionally comfortable in possession. They get a decent number of touches and not only pass out from the back, but also carry the ball forward. Juan Foyth would have been so perfect; such a pity that we agreed to that option to buy (and for so cheap – gah!)! Joe Rodon will definitely be a good fit, Japhet Tanganga might be too (though, unfortunately, his injury record is a concern) as his ability to drive forward with the ball (mainly form right-back) was a very pleasant surprise this past season. Toby Alderweireld is great at passing, but not a natural ball carrier, and with Fonseca’s line being far higher than we’ve become accustomed to, I’m not convinced that Alderweireld will be suited, certainly not in the long-term. To be brutally honest, Davinson Sánchez’s on-the-ball ability is inadequate for this system. And Eric Dier on the turn in a high line frightens me. Personally, I think it’s clear we need a quality ball-playing and ball carrying centre-back, and the obvious solution is Ben White, though he would be expensive.

In Fonseca’s system, the two wide centre-backs move out towards the flanks in possession with the wing-backs pushed aggressively high up the pitch. Ben Davies would, therefore, be quite well-suited to the left-sided centre-back role and, in terms of young players who might come from nowhere and get a look-in, TJ Eyoma is one to keep an eye on over the next season or two. He had an excellent season at Lincoln City, playing as a right-back for the first half of the season and a centre-back for the second. This illustrates, I think, how comfortable he is in possession and he’s a good match for that hybrid role on the right.

Wing-backs

I think this is the most interesting of all of the Fonseca roles. Out of possession, the wing-backs drop in and make-up a back five, with the near-side wing-back pushing out to engage his man and the far-side wing-back dropping into a neat line of four. As soon as they win the ball, the wing-backs are off — they push up incredibly high; you can think of them as traditional wingers in possession.

This is a good example of Roma’s attacking shape. This is from the 3-1 win against Juventus in August 2020 in which Roma played 3-4-3. The two wide players are the wing-backs, the three in-field that are close together are the front three.

Sergio Reguilón and Ryan Sessegnon are absolutely ideally suited to the left wing-back role. They have acceleration to energetically spring forward, are happy to position themselves high, and also have natural recovery pace. We know that on the right we have a problem, with Serge Aurier likely to leave and Matt Doherty so far having struggled to settle, though we need to acknowledge that he had Covid. I’d need some convincing that Doherty has the athleticism to cope with the aggressive transitions, but what we do know about him is that he is excellent at timing a run and has ability to contribute in the final third, often arriving in the box, something that Fonseca likes in his far-side wing-back.

What’s interesting is how much Fonseca has developed Leonardo Spinazzola, who played so well for Italy against Turkey in the Euros opener. He is a right-footed left wing-back who mostly played as a winger (though he did have full-back experience too) before Fonseca got hold of him. He is a terrific ball carrier and really makes that count. However, I don’t think ball carrying is an essential Fonseca wing-back trait as Rick Karsdorp’s carrying numbers are low. Rather, he positions himself high, waits for it to come to him, and delivers crosses, or bursts into the box at the far post if the ball is on the opposite side. That feels very Doherty.

I was surprised that both Roma wing-backs average under 10km per match despite the role being a demanding one. I’d love to see the sprint numbers as I bet they are high as the transitions from defence to attack are pretty intense. But, without that additional context, I think there’s some hope for Doherty. Of course, we absolutely need to sign another right wing-back, because we can’t go through a demanding season with just one, and I’d be all over Tariq Lamptey if that deal were possible. But, in terms of what’s already in the squad, I’d say Jack Clarke is the player with the most potential to fit this role with some close mentoring. Perhaps that will be something to look out for in the Europa Conference League.

Central midfielders

Fonseca’s centre-mids are real all-rounders. They collect the ball from the centre-backs and help break the lines in build-up, they cover in behind the wing-backs on transitions when needed, they get beyond the front three with late runs and arrive in the box. They carry the ball forward where possible, they pull strings, they pass quickly and fluidly, and they find the attacking midfielders often.

A lot is made of Jordan Veretout’s goalscoring exploits, but it must be noted that the majority of his goals were penalties. That said, he is in the 90th percentile for non-penalty goals in the top 5 leagues: very impressive.

I had a look at all of his Roma goals and they are nice and varied — some from the edge of the box, a third man run, a supporting run on a counter, a couple where he took up nice positions in the box from crosses.

Fonseca’s central midfield at Roma has been made up of two from Veretout, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Gonzalo Villar or Bryan Cristante. Cristante also plays centre-back regularly, and Pellegrini often plays in the attacking midfield band; like us, they have quite a bit of versatility amongst their squad. Villar’s numbers illustrate that, when he plays, he’s playing a more conservative role, but he carries the ball well. His defensive actions are not exactly anything to write home about.

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg seems to be the best Villar equivalent, but Oliver Skipp will surely give him a run for his money, and what Skipp brings that Højbjerg arguably doesn’t is a nimbleness in being able to break forward at speed — not that he did it often at Norwich, as he mostly played at the very base of the midfield in a very conservative role. But he has terrific box-to-box energy. I think either he or Højbjerg could be viable options throughout the season and would expect plenty of rotation. Harry Winks could absolutely do a job in this system — in fact, I think he’d be rather well-suited and it would protect his defensive frailties — but, at this point, I’m expecting him to move on.

Tanguy Ndombele and Giovani Lo Celso are the two players I’ll be desperate to see work in Fonseca’s system, as I believe they’re two of the best players at the club. I really like the idea of Ndombele in the Veretout role, and Lo Celso playing as one of the attacking midfield band… more on that in a moment.

In terms of youngsters for the midfield role (aside from Skipp, mentioned above), that may well be determined by what’s best for their development. Harvey White will surely be out on loan again, Jamie Bowden will hopefully get his first loan too, and that probably leaves Nile John and Alfie Devine as next in line. They are dynamic, versatile, technical players and I’d love to see them both play some Europa Conference League minutes in midfield. Quick shout-out too to Elliot Thorpe, a ball-carrying midfielder. I think he could be a surprise inclusion in pre-season.

Attacking midfielders

The two behind the striker play incredibly narrow in Fonseca’s 3-4-3, forming a pentagon with the striker at the tip and the central midfielders at the base. They make lots of movements towards the (high) wing-backs to create triangles and are constantly probing from those pockets of space. They are very much link players as well as attacking threats themselves, often dropping deep to pick up the ball and carry it forward with the wing-backs running past them on the way, and they help enable the team structure through creating overloads in the middle of the pitch.

Dele is absolutely perfectly suited for this role. His close control, speed of thought, ball carrying and one and two-touch passing would work wonderfully in these pockets of space, as it did under Pochettino when he played as a 10. He also possesses the athleticism and responsibility to drop deeper into midfield when necessary, another characteristic of Fonseca’s style, which can resemble a 5-4-1 in the defensive phase. I think Bergwijn is also a good fit for many of the same reasons as Dele, though he does play it a lot safer. My gut feel, as above, is that Lo Celso fits best on the right of the front three. He has the probing qualities, tenacity in the press, and would enjoy coming in from the flank and playing off others. This role is really not one that provides width, and the idea of Lo Celso being on the ball in the half-space and playing through-balls to a predatory forward is an attractive one.

My initial thought is that I don’t quite see that this role plays to Son’s strengths as we know them right now. We’re used to seeing Son start wide and come inside either in possession, dribbling into space to get a shot away, or out of possession, to get on the end of a long pass and run through on goal. This role sees the opposite – the attacking midfielder starts inside and moves out, sees a lot of the ball, and is expected to create. Son is an elite player, but does he have good enough close control and awareness of those around him to excel in this role?

The one of our youngsters that I think fits this role particularly well is one I’ve already mentioned — Alfie Devine. He’s excellent in the half-spaces and working one-twos with teammates. I can see him fitting this just as well as the central midfield role.

Forward

I watched all of Edin Džeko’s goals from the last two years at Roma and, of those, I recall one where he dropped deep to link play. All of the others involved him being at the sharp end — he’s the spearhead, in the box, attacking crosses with movement, using those poaching instincts. Harry Kane would score bucketloads. I then watched a bunch of his key passes, and the vast majority are one or two-touch lay-offs to players around him or rushing past him.

I wondered if that was just Džeko being Džeko and so I wanted to look at Fonseca’s strikers at his previous clubs. I skipped his first four clubs, so ended up looking at his main strikers for the last nine seasons.

• Paços de Ferreira (2012/13) – Cícero, 13 goals in 37 matches, 189cm
• Porto (2013/14) – Jackson Martínez, 29 goals in 51 matches, 185cm
• Paços de Ferreira (2014/15) – Bruno Moreira, 14 goals in 31 matches, 185cm
• Braga (2015/16) – Ahmed Hassan, 14 goals in 44 matches, 191cm and Nikola Stojiljkovic, 15 goals in 46 matches, 185cm – they played 4-4-2 in this season.
• Shakhtar Donetsk (2016/17) – Facundo Ferreyra, 17 goals in 28 matches, 183cm
• Shakhtar Donetsk (2017/18) – Facundo Ferreyra, 30 goals in 42 matches, 183cm
• Shakhtar Donetsk (2018/19) – Júnior Moraes, 26 goals in 39 matches, 176cm
• Roma (2019/20) – Edin Džeko, 19 goals in 43 matches, 193cm
• Roma (2020/21) – Borja Mayoral, 10 goals in 31 matches, 182cm

I then queued up all of Júnior Moraes’ goals from the 2018/19 season. Yeah, it’s the same again. It’s getting on the end of crosses, it’s back-post tap-ins, it’s opportunistic goals, getting squared the ball on a counter, penalties. Nearly all penalty box stuff.

The striker stays forward. The striker leads the line. He is a platform for interplay, but not integral to it, and the majority of the time can just focus on being aware of what’s going on around him and getting into the box.

I say again: Harry Kane would score a hatful. He’d sure assist a lot less, though. But, if anything, this has made me feel a tiny bit better about the idea of Kane leaving. Which, obviously, would leave a huge hole, a hole impossible to fill with an individual player, but the striker is not the be all and end all in this system… aside from that little thing of putting he ball in the net.

And here’s a plot twist. The reason I included the height of the strikers was because knowing that Džeko played under Fonseca a lot at Roma (until they fell out) I wondered whether he had ‘a type’. I don’t think he necessarily does aside from good predatory movement in the box. So in terms of our squad, and potentially in planning for life after Kane, I’m wondering if we will see a new role for Son Heung-min who, by the way, is 184cm tall. Maybe I’ve got this totally wrong and Son will play the narrow attacking midfield role superbly. Or maybe Fonseca changes things up and goes back to a 4-2-3-1 because Son is a wonderful player and that system suits and accommodates him. But I’m just throwing it out there as a point to consider.

Of our youngsters, Scarlett is the one for this 3-4-3. He is a typical penalty box poacher and is ideal. Our other exciting young striker, Troy Parrott, is a bit like Kane in that he likes to be heavily involved in build-up play. He is a quality player with bags of potential, but not such a natural fit in my view.

Conclusions

I plan to do some more analysis of Fonseca’s teams once the announcement is made and I’m sure I’ll revise some of the points above once I become more familiar with his set-up. But, on what I’ve seen so far, I feel confident about Reguilón, Rodon and Dele fitting, but less confident about Son (unless up front), Sánchez, Alderweireld and Lloris.

This is not my first-choice XI by any stretch but an XI I can see fitting the system using existing players, obviously assuming that Kane is not there. If he is there, I imagine Fonseca would revert to a 4-2-3-1 to accommodate Son. I think this also illustrates the key positions we need to strengthen.

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments about which players you think fit and which don’t. And also, on whether you think I’ve missed something or misinterpreted something about Fonseca’s system(s).

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“Paulo Fonseca”, I thought to myself, “what do I know about him?”. Not a great deal. So I thought I’d better do some digging before I formed an opinion. I’ve done this via a number of methods, and I’ll take you through my process step-by-step and then, at the end, we can have a think together about how we feel about his apparently-imminent appointment. Here’s where I started:

1. His history
2. His style
3. Data
4. Fan opinion

His history

I logged onto his Wikipedia and had a look at his win percentage, which is a bit up and down to say the least. But, of course, you need to dig deeper and work out where he’s taken each club from and where they’ve ended up.

When he joined Paços de Ferreira they had finished 10th. He stayed a season in which they finished third and qualified for the Champions League for the first time. The season after he left they finished fifteenth. He went back a year later and they finished eight. Between those two stints he went to Porto, where he took the previous season’s league winners to third. However, it’s worth noting that that summer they sold João Moutinho and James Rodríguez to AS Monaco for a combined fee of around €70 million.

After his second spell at Paços he went to Braga, where he delivered their first cup win since the sixties, finished fourth (same as the previous season) and took them to the UEFA Europa League quarter-final.

He then went to Shakhtar Donetsk, where he stayed for three years. After two years of finishing second prior to his arrival, he had them top three years on the trot (by 13 points, 2 points and 11 points). They were then top the year after he left too, before dropping to second this year just gone. He won the Cup three times and the Super Cup once. That’s seven trophies in three years (and nine in his career to date). In 2017/18, he was recognised as Ukraine’s best manager. Let’s be clear, it’s very much a two-team league, but he got to the Champions League Round of 16 in his first and third seasons.

He moved to Roma in June 2019. In his first season they finished 5th, four points and one position ahead of their previous season’s finish under Claudio Ranieri. They also made the Europa League Round of 16. This season they finished 7th but they did make the Semi-Finals of the Europa League.

His style

Tifo made a great video on Fonseca’s Roma.

This was made in March of this year and things seemed pretty bright then, as you can tell from the tone of the video. He plays an attacking style — the criticism is that, if anything, it is a bit too attacking. His teams tend to play a pressing style with intensity and positivity and they like to possess the ball, building from the back. They overload the midfield with wingers that come into the middle of the pitch and central midfielders that break forward at opportune moments. He has played a mixture of 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1 across his managerial career, including a mid-season change from one to the other.

Critics suggest that he is very adaptable from match to match but less so within matches, and that this is a weakness, along with his use of substitutions, which critics say come too late.

My friend Tiago Estêvão tweeted this great clip which shows Fonseca’s Shakhtar at their possession-based best.

Paulo Fonseca's Shakhtar:
29 passes between all eleven players before scoring v Gent a few months ago.

(via @lateralesquerdo / @FCShakhtar) pic.twitter.com/0BNGh5tHwW

— Tiago Estêvão (@TiagoEstv) February 4, 2017

And I learnt a tonne about him from this video. I would urge you to watch it but I’ve made some notes below.

• The players say he improved their games and taught them to understand their roles better.
• He spoke about changing the tactics in a league match (regrouping rather than counter-pressing) to prepare for the forthcoming match against Man City in the Champions League.
• He has a very strong focus on opposition preparation. He shows how Shakhtar prepared specific automations for the Man City game in which they created overloads in midfield and played with their wingers high to create a difficult decision for City’s markers. They subsequently scored from two pre-researched, pre-defined, pre-trained situations.
• He was focussed on forcing City out wide as much as possible.
• He defines his Shakhtar team’s playing style as ‘obsession with ball possession, the obsession with wanting to play in the offensive half of the field … the obsession of taking the initiative during the match.’
• He was asked about whether he adapts to the players at his disposal in a squad or vice versa and he answered: ‘I have my game style and try to adapt the players to it’.
• ‘You’ll hardly see a team of mine defending in a low block’. Music to my ears.
• His assistant coach says ‘Paulo’s leadership allows us to actively intervene to supplement and support his work’. His coaching team seems incredibly close-knit, obsessed by detail, and truly collaborative.
• He uses a video analyst who calls down to the bench during matches and then works with an editor to prepare clips to use at half-time to illustrate tactical points.
• He says of Pep Guardiola and Maurizio Sarri: ‘They’re coaches who believe that there’s more to soccer than winning. And I totally believe that that makes them win more than others.’
• And one last thing…

Data

I thought I’d look into what went wrong at Roma prior to him leaving (note: he was not sacked, but his contract was not renewed). What’s really interesting is that up until 1 March 2021, he had Roma performing well.

On expected points they were third, only a couple of points behind Inter out in first. They were actually 5th in the table, having conceded 7.53 goals more than expected and scored 3.37 fewer – a near eleven goal swing against them. It seems they were pretty unlucky to be where they were and yet doing fine-ish, so no wonder the Tifo video was so positive! So what went wrong? Well, it seems that the injury to Jordan Veretout, which led to him missing eight of the last 13 was a real problem. He was a key component, a midfielder that regularly made late runs into the box to get on the end of things. Likewise, Leonardo Spinazzola missed 8 of the last 9 and Nicolò Zaniolo missed the entire season.

In the previous season he had his team performing the fourth best in the league and only around six expected points off the best performing team, Atalanta. Their problem was that whilst they were slightly underperforming expected goals, the top three teams were over-performing them.

And it’s really worth checking this out too…

And the dashboard data from @pwawrzynow pic.twitter.com/7BAi95cgqM

— The Extra Inch (@TheExtraInch) June 9, 2021

Fan Opinion

Finally, it’s always a good idea to see what fans of a coach’s previous club have to say about him, and I think there’s a lot to glean from this article. Firstly, the four guys rate his reign: C+, C-, C+, B-. Not great, but not the abject failure that this spell has been presented as. They talk about how he created a team that swatted the teams it should swat, but struggled against stronger teams. That’s a little bit Pochettino… They talk about how he developed wing-backs marvellously. That’s a little bit Pochettino… They talk about how they had faith they would win even when behind. That’s a little bit Pochettino! They also reference his development of players; Pochettino. On the downside, they talk to running players into the ground, his struggles against bigger teams and late subs – again, a bit Pochettino.

They seem optimistic about his future, post-Roma, and one of the guys ends with this: ‘He’s Luis Enrique 2.0, plain and simple. A manager who just didn’t find success in Rome, but not because of anything particularly related to him or his tactics. I definitely think Paulo will end up in the Prem, and with the right moves, I could see him winning a title with a post-Harry Kane Tottenham.’

So?

This link caused a fiery meltdown amongst Spurs fans on social media. Based on my research so far, I am definitely not melting down. Fonseca might not be the big name that many fans crave, but he seems to match the ideals that Daniel Levy has outlined. He’s a progressive coach who works with players to develop them into his system, plays attacking football and has a record of winning trophies. Any manager appointment comes with a degree of risk, but I think the starting point has to be: does he fit the profile? And I think I can say that he does fit the profile.

There’s also the point that this is a Fabio Paratici pick. I’ve yapped on about us needing a Director Of Football/Sporting Director/General Manager for a long time, so when we appoint one turning my nose up at his first manager appointment seems foolish. If we’re going with this guy, let’s let him appoint who he thinks is best.

I think there’s plenty there to allow you to squint and imagine Fonseca doing a good job at Spurs. Any appointment comes with risk, but this would be a fairly low-cost risk which we can move on from easily if necessary. I cannot see him burning bridges in the squad or leaving a trail of destruction behind him — quite the opposite.

I would add that, based on what I’ve researched and watched, I like Fonseca as a person. He’s warm, he’s charismatic, he’s decent. Whether that makes a difference to you or not, *shrug*, but it does to me.

If there’s a demand for it, I’ll be back at some point for Part 2, where I’ll think about how he might work with our squad. I’ll also share any other learnings on Fonseca, as I’m sure plenty more information and resources will emerge in the coming days.

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I am the host of The Extra Inch; a Spurs podcast that delves into the analytical side of Tottenham games. Check us out! If you already follow the podcast, consider becoming an xSub for additional content.

I recently added a Donate button to this site. It’s on the ‘About‘ page. I explain why on there. Cheers!